All 71 economists surveyed by Reuters between 10 and 12 November expected the European Central Bank to lift its deposit rate to 2.75% in December. The ECB already raised rates in June and September. More than a third of respondents expected another increase in early 2027.

Eurostat’s preliminary estimate put annual eurozone inflation at 4.0% in October, up from 3.8% in September and double the ECB’s 2% target. Energy prices rose 20.8% from a year earlier, while services inflation edged up from 3.2% to 3.3%. That increase in services prices gives policymakers another measure to watch as they assess whether inflation will persist.

“The December hike is almost on autopilot,” Fabio Balboni, chief European economist at Wellington Management, told Reuters. He described a March increase as roughly a 50–50 possibility, citing the potential for underlying inflation to keep rising into early 2027.