Goldman Now Sees Two 2026 South Africa Rate Hikes Because of War
Bloomberg
Last updated: May 14, 2026
Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for South Africa's monetary policy, now anticipating interest rate hikes rather than cuts. This shift is driven by escalating global inflation risks, primarily due to the conflict in Iran.
- The global geopolitical situation, particularly the conflict in Iran, is identified as a significant driver of inflation. This increased inflationary pressure is leading Goldman Sachs to revise its economic outlook for South Africa.
- Previously, Goldman Sachs had projected a series of interest rate cuts for the South African economy. However, the prevailing global inflationary environment has prompted a change in this expectation.
- The bank now anticipates that the South African Reserve Bank will implement two interest rate increases within the current year. This adjustment reflects a response to the heightened inflation risks stemming from international events.
- The updated forecast underscores the interconnectedness of global events and their impact on national economic policies.
- The primary economic factor influencing this change is the threat of rising inflation globally.
- This revised outlook signifies a departure from earlier predictions of monetary easing.
