Traders Expect a Fed Rate Hike—But Not This Time
Wall Street Journal
Last updated: October 28, 2026
Traders overwhelmingly anticipate the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates at its upcoming meeting. However, there is a strong expectation that a rate increase will occur later in the year.
- Interest-rate futures indicate a high probability, around 90% according to CME Group, that the Federal Reserve will not change its benchmark interest rate today.
- Despite the expected pause, market sentiment suggests a significant likelihood of a rate hike before the end of the current year.
- This expectation reflects a dual outlook: immediate stability in monetary policy followed by a tightening measure in the near future.
- The data from interest-rate futures serves as a primary indicator of these market expectations.
