US 2-Year Yield Is Headed To 5%: Will The AI Chip Rally Break? - Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU)
Benzinga
Last updated: June 9, 2026
Technical analyst John Roque identifies the front end of the Treasury curve, specifically yields approaching 5%, as a major threat to risk assets. He asserts that recent sharp market corrections were preceded by weeks of warning signs, characterized by historically extreme valuations in many stocks and indices.
- The Treasury curve's ascent past March and May highs is considered "Public Enemy No. 1" for risk assets, potentially reaching 5%.
- Last Friday's significant selloffs in the Nasdaq 100 and semiconductor stocks were not entirely unexpected, as many market leaders had reached historically extreme levels relative to their long-term trends.
- Examples include Rackspace Technology surging nearly 450% above its 200-day average and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index trading 76% above its 200-day moving average.
- South Korea's KOSPI index was even more stretched, trading 83% above its long-term trend.
- Roque remains bearish on gold and silver, citing their overbought status on monthly indicators and suggesting rising interest rates are detrimental to these assets.
- He also sees potential downside risk for Bitcoin, targeting 40,000, believing it broke down in October 2025.
- The overarching theme is the danger of parabolic advances coinciding with a rising-rate environment, impacting various asset classes.
- Investors are advised to monitor the two-year Treasury yield's movement toward 5% as a key indicator for continued market pressure on crowded momentum trades.
